{"id":4202,"date":"2014-12-04T19:12:28","date_gmt":"2014-12-04T18:12:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/duncanshelley.com\/?p=4202"},"modified":"2014-12-04T19:12:28","modified_gmt":"2014-12-04T18:12:28","slug":"hosszutavu-idosorok","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/duncanshelley.com\/en\/hosszutavu-idosorok\/","title":{"rendered":"Hossz\u00fat\u00e1v\u00fa id\u0151sorok"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A jelen megfigyel\u00e9se fontos, a jelen megk\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6ztet\u00e9se a m\u00faltt\u00f3l \u00e9s a j\u00f6v\u0151t\u0151l, szint\u00e9n fontos, azonban rengeteg olyan h\u00e1tt\u00e9rfolyamat l\u00e9tezik, melyek befoly\u00e1solj\u00e1k az \u00e9let\u00fcnket, de a jelen megfigyel\u00e9s\u00e9vel nem vehet\u0151k \u00e9szre. Ilyen folyamatokat elemz\u00e9ssel fedezhet\u00fcnk fel \u2013 a hossz\u00fat\u00e1v\u00fa id\u0151sorok elemz\u00e9s\u00e9vel.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nincs kisz\u00e1m\u00edthatatlan ember, nincs kisz\u00e1m\u00edthatatlan folyamat. L\u00e9teznek olyan rendszerek, melyekben az ism\u00e9tl\u0151d\u00e9s r\u00f6vid id\u0151 alatt is \u00e9szrevehet\u0151, \u00e9s l\u00e9teznek olyan rendszerek, melyekben az ism\u00e9tl\u0151d\u00e9s csak hossz\u00fa id\u0151 megfigyel\u00e9s\u00e9vel, \u00e9s nagy mennyis\u00e9g\u0171 esem\u00e9ny elemz\u00e9s\u00e9vel fedezhet\u0151 fel. J\u00f3 p\u00e9lda erre az id\u0151j\u00e1r\u00e1s, amely maga a k\u00e1osz, l\u00e1tsz\u00f3lag, hossz\u00fat\u00e1v\u00fa id\u0151sorok elemz\u00e9s\u00e9vel azonban egy igen prec\u00edz rendszer jelenik meg szem\u00fcnk el\u0151tt.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nyikolaj Dmitrijevics Kondratyev, statisztikus, r\u00e9szt vett a Szovjetuni\u00f3 els\u0151 \u00f6t\u00e9ves terv\u00e9nek kidolgoz\u00e1s\u00e1ban. Munk\u00e1j\u00e1hoz hossz\u00fat\u00e1v\u00fa id\u0151sorokat elemzett, \u00e9s megalkotott egy elm\u00e9letet, melyet K-ciklusnak neveznek. Civiliz\u00e1ci\u00f3nkban t\u00f6bb ciklus is l\u00e9tezik, 40, 80 \u00e9s 130 \u00e9ves intervallumok, melyek elindul\u00e1s\u00e1t \u00e9s lez\u00e1rul\u00e1s\u00e1t konkr\u00e9t esem\u00e9nyek jelzik.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kondratyev szerint ezen ciklusok kiv\u00e1lt\u00f3i olyan tal\u00e1lm\u00e1nyok, melyek megv\u00e1ltoztatj\u00e1k a vil\u00e1g arculat\u00e1t. Megjelenik egy tal\u00e1lm\u00e1ny, kikrist\u00e1lyosodik, letisztultt\u00e1 v\u00e1lik, majd m\u00f6g\u00e9 \u00e1ll a t\u0151ke, \u00e9s a tal\u00e1lm\u00e1ny elterjed\u00e9s\u00e9vel megv\u00e1ltozik a vil\u00e1g.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2008-ban indult az \u00fajabb K-ciklus. Egy kor\u00e1bbi el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s szerint ez a ciklus lenne az \u0171rkorszak, \u00e1m azt a 70-es \u00e9vekben lef\u00fajt\u00e1k. Az elemz\u0151k t\u00f6bbs\u00e9ge egyet\u00e9rt abban, hogy a jelenlegi intervallum els\u0151dleges tal\u00e1lm\u00e1nya a biol\u00f3gia ter\u00fclet\u00e9n jelenik majd meg. Azt m\u00e9g nem l\u00e1tni, hogy a nanotechnol\u00f3gia, a g\u00e9ntechnol\u00f3gia, vagy valami m\u00e1s, ma m\u00e9g nem k\u00f6zismert fogalomhoz k\u00f6t\u0151d\u0151 technol\u00f3gia hozza el az \u00faj korszakot.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A K-ciklus elm\u00e9let\u00e9nek van k\u00e9t fontos eleme. Az egyik, hogy csak kapitalista rendszerben m\u0171k\u00f6dik, mivel a kommunista berendezked\u00e9s t\u00e1rsadalmi folyamatai eg\u00e9szen m\u00e1s jelleg\u0171ek (nem kedveznek a technol\u00f3giai fejl\u0151d\u00e9snek). A m\u00e1sik, hogy minden \u00fajabb hull\u00e1m egy nagys\u00e1grenddel nagyobb befektet\u00e9si \u00f6sszeget ig\u00e9nyel. Ez azt jelenti, hogy a jelenlegi ciklusban els\u0151dlegess\u00e9 v\u00e1l\u00f3 tal\u00e1lm\u00e1ny mintegy t\u00edzmilli\u00f3szor akkora er\u0151forr\u00e1st k\u00edv\u00e1n majd, mint amekkor\u00e1t a g\u0151zg\u00e9p.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Gazdas\u00e1gi elemz\u0151k szerint mintegy sz\u00e1zezer-milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r nagys\u00e1grend\u0171 mag\u00e1nt\u0151ke v\u00e1rja ugr\u00e1sra k\u00e9szen, hogy megjelenjen az a tal\u00e1lm\u00e1ny, amibe nagyon \u00edg\u00e9retes befektetni, mert elhozza az \u00faj korszakot.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A jelenlegi ciklus 2008-ban indult el, \u00e9s 2045-2050-ig tart. Az ma m\u00e9g nem l\u00e1that\u00f3, hogy ez az id\u0151szak v\u00e9gkimenetel\u00e9ben sz\u00e9p lesz-e vagy cs\u00fanya, de azt m\u00e1r most elmondhatjuk, hogy izgalmas lesz benne \u00e9lni. A hossz\u00fat\u00e1v\u00fa id\u0151sorok tanuls\u00e1ga szerint, valamikor a 2020-as \u00e9vek m\u00e1sodik fel\u00e9ben megv\u00e1ltozik a t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelem.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A hossz\u00fat\u00e1v\u00fa id\u0151sorok r\u00e1mutatnak arra, ami nem l\u00e1that\u00f3. Messzir\u0151l n\u00e9zve a k\u00e1osz is rend.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6388,"featured_media":4604,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-4202","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-a_vilag","8":"entry"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hossz\u00fat\u00e1v\u00fa id\u0151sorok - Duncan Shelley K\u00f6nyvesbolt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/duncanshelley.com\/en\/hosszutavu-idosorok\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hossz\u00fat\u00e1v\u00fa id\u0151sorok\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A hossz\u00fat\u00e1v\u00fa id\u0151sorok r\u00e1mutatnak arra, ami nem l\u00e1that\u00f3. 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